Recently, researchers have drawn up a probable scenario regarding the evolution of Covid-19. According to them, our immune system should adapt and cause less and less serious forms through reinfections and vaccinations. However, this is reminiscent of a mild illness also induced by other coronaviruses:the common cold.
In November 2020, Catherine Smallwood, the World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency Manager for Europe, said:" The virus is with us forever" . Obviously, this intervention had dashed the hopes of a return to normal in the very near future. As the number of Covid-19 cases today flirts with the 100 million mark, a new duo study by researchers from Emory University and Pennsylvania State University (United States) and published in the journal Science on January 12, 2021 also estimates that the epidemic may never end. However, if these remarks seem worrying at first glance, they nevertheless believe that the current health situation will eventually calm down. According to these researchers, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus will eventually become a disease as mild as a common cold.
The study authors believe that for this, enough people will need to be immunized either by vaccines or by the disease itself. The latter will become benign and the virus will circulate at fairly low levels . However, reaching this stage will depend on the speed at which this herd immunity is effective. In short, everything depends on the speed with which the population will be infected and/or vaccinated.
To reach this conclusion, the researchers compared SARS-CoV-2 to six other coronaviruses affecting humans. These are the four cold coronaviruses, plus SARS (2003) and MERS (2012). For these scientists, the new virus indeed behaves like those inducing the common cold in humans. It usually first infects children between the ages of 3 and 5 before becoming less "nasty" as adults .
This way of seeing things is shared by other scientists like Romulus Breban, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur interviewed in an article by La Croix in August 2020. He indicated that our health systems would have to hold on , because Covid-19 is an additional disease to be taken care of. The researcher had made a parallel with the flu, explaining that the population lived with this seasonal disease. However, if it still kills, it is no longer treated as a disease of crucial importance, a vaccination strategy and surveillance on a global scale to contain epidemics.
