The Covid-19 pandemic is currently affecting an overwhelming majority of countries. Several billion people are confined and the economy is in bad shape. And yet, US researchers believe the pandemic could last up to two more years.
Scientists around the world are conducting their research on Covid-19. Some focus on developing a cure. Others try to understand its origin or make provisional estimates. With approximately 3.6 million cases for more than 250,000 deaths , the Covid-19 pandemic is the most serious since the Hong Kong flu (1968-1970). However, this one had made about a million victims.
A team from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota published a report on April 30, 2020. In it, it is said that the humanity should perhaps prepare for the impacts of Covid-19 for the next two years. For Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, we would only be at the start of the pandemic. The interested party gave an image:we are playing the second inning of a baseball game that would have nine in total.
In its report, the CIDRAP team detailed three possible scenarios. The first concerns a return of Covid-19 over one or two years with peaks of medium importance, however requiring the return of social distancing measures. The second evokes the appearance of a very significant peak this autumn , forcing humanity into a second episode of prolonged quarantine. The last scenario shows a slow disappearance of the epidemic at a pace that would not, however, overload health services.
Deconfinement will happen soon or is taking place already in various countries such as the United States. However, researchers warn deconfinement will not spell the end of the pandemic. According to them, there will be at least an additional 18 to 24 months significant activity of Covid-19. Periodically, "hot spots" will appear in various areas that will require quarantine or less severe measures depending on the severity of the situation.
The authors of the report also mentioned a vaccine, an essential and life-saving solution. Nevertheless, they estimate that a successful vaccine will not appear for ten to fourteen months . However, on the same day as the release of the CIDRAP report, a team from the University of Oxford (UK) was very optimistic about it. Nothing is certain yet, but initial trials on macaques lead us to believe that a vaccine will be available by September 2020.
